Provincial Forecast of greenhouse gas emissions

B.C.'s Provincial Forecast of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Supporting Metrics (Provincial Forecast) contains projections to 2030 of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions included in the Province's emissions reduction targets.

The Provincial Forecast also includes other related metrics such as gross domestic product (GDP) and provincial energy use. It contains these projections for the CleanBC scenario and, for comparison, a reference scenario with only policies announced as of July 2017.

The Climate Action Secretariat prepares and publishes the Provincial Forecast annually, using modelling conducted by Navius Research. Each year, the modelling used to create the projections is updated with the most recent and accurate input data available.

Current Provincial Forecast

The 2022 Provincial Forecast (XLSX, 102KB) projects that, under CleanBC, B.C.'s gross GHG emissions will reach 43.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e) in 2030 (including emissions from land-use change and abatement from B.C. utilities purchasing renewable natural gas produced and used outside of B.C.). This is a decrease of 32% (21.1 MtCO₂e) from 65.5 MtCO₂e in 2007, the baseline year for our emissions reduction and sectoral targets (as reported in B.C.'s Provincial Inventory 1990-2020 (XLSX, 277KB)).

After including post-modelling adjustments (which account for technical limitations of the model and policies that were not included in the modelling), net emissions in 2030 are projected to be 40.1 MtCO₂e under the CleanBC Roadmap. This is a decrease of 39 percent (25.4 MtCO₂e) from 2007, achieving 97 percent of the reduction required by B.C.'s target. Post-modelling adjustments are described in more detail in the methodology report (PDF, 1.2MB) that accompanies the Provincial Forecast.